Some Hard Facts and Words about COVID-19, the U.S. Response and What Actual Reality Is and Will Be

Having been an active member of both major political parties for long stretches during my life and no longer a member of either (neither represent me or my views any longer), I do have and have had many longtime friends in various governor’s mansions, Congress and even a certain house on Pennsylvania. I’ve been to homes and offices in Plains GA, Little Rock, Nashville, Atlanta, DC, Phoenix, etc. I’ve turned down job offers from prominent Republican and Democrat senators and congressmen. I’ve also turned down job offers from organizations like Greenpeace. I have enjoyed “quality” meals with many on the far right and far left (and everything in between). My family and I have been longtime personal friends with Billy Graham and his extended family dating back to the 1950s. One of his prominent grandchildren has been one of my best friends over the previous few decades. I’ve also had home phone numbers of others like Allen Ginsberg and Oliver Stone. I’ve lunched with Jerry Falwell, had dinner with Walter Cronkite, hung out with Lawrence Ferlinghetti in San Francisco discussing the Beats and socialist politics, spent years working at one of the oldest and most prestigious law firms in the south, where conservative leaders emerged seemingly every generation, and have enjoyed discussions with liberal leaders and public figures like Barbara Boxer and Andrea Dworkin. I’ve enjoyed Thanksgiving and Christmas meals dining with the owners of some of the most prominent professional sports teams in America and I’ve been homeless and forced to live in my car on more than one occasion. And so much more that will go unsaid. Getting the picture yet? I don’t play sides, I don’t vote party, but I do vote people. I know many traditional Reagan Republicans who may identify with much of what Max Boot and Rick Wilson have been writing about recently. If you’ve not read such, I’d consider it. (Some suggestions: “The Corrosion of Conservatism: Why I Left the Right” by Max Boot; “Everything Trump Touches Dies: A Republican Strategist Gets Real About the Worst President Ever” by Rick Wilson; “Running Against the Devil: A Plot to Save America from Trump — and Democrats from Themselves” by Rick Wilson; “The Assault on Intelligence: American National Security in an Age of Lies” by Michael V. Hayden, among others.)

People asked for change, demanded a change. We received change. Some are happy, some are not. Buyer’s remorse. Many wonder where things are headed in the future. Some may know but are too timid to say. I’ve been holding back for 13 weeks and am about to chuck it and start writing hard things people need to hear. Seems like risk analysis, emergency preparedness and contingency planning are lost art forms for many. I’ve spent my entire life and career buried in these. I have yet to be wrong once over the past 12+ weeks (and I’ve never wanted to be wrong more than now…). This can be confirmed by several people, by the way. I’ve been publicly slammed by fellow Americans for actually complimenting foreign leaders on their responses to this crisis during this time. But it’s time many Americans hear some hard things. Funny, people think they’ve already had it hard here. Because of “social isolation” or “self-quarantine” (which far too many people aren’t adhering to anyway!). I remain appalled at this inane article by someone stating that finally they “get it” when they have no clue: https://cnn.it/34G2CKp (“Now I finally understand what my grandparents knew”). People have no idea what “plan for the worst, hope for the best” actually means; otherwise there wouldn’t be daily shock by so-called experts now projecting further and further out, increasingly into next year. That’s NOT worst-case scenario planning, sorry. I began advising others on potential contingency plans for 24–48+ months out from now two months ago. I expect to upset many in coming days, but I have no office to lose and I don’t really care. I simply want to help my fellow countrymen, even ones I vehemently disagree with, whether they can “handle” certain truths or not. The fact that U.S. leaders are actually calling for unlimited U.S. deaths in favor of the economy shows how short sighted, naïve and heartless they actually are (https://cnn.it/3bd7eKA). (And the fact that “Dr. Oz” literally stated it’s so important to get kids back to school that an estimated 4% fatality rate OF THE KIDS would be worth it means he’s lost any credibility he ever had in my eyes, as well as the eyes of many others. Because face it — why is it so important that kids get back to school this month at the cost of the lives of thousands or more of them instead of just delaying for some months and saving a huge majority of those unnecessary deaths? They’re freaking KIDS! I don’t see these conservative politicians and celebrities recommending we sacrifice kids and the elderly [Texas governor] getting in line to actually BE LEADERS and set great examples by sacrificing their families and themselves first, do you? Think about that. I think that’s the least they can do, especially since they’re incapable of leading or governing in general.)

People bury their heads in the sand rather than hear news they don’t like or are afraid of. It’s understandable from an instinctual position, but it doesn’t help the survival rate. The Greatest Generation is surely turning in its collective grave. Folks, people throughout the world face hardships we can’t relate to on a regular basis. If we’re as tough as we like to portray ourselves, let’s put our money where our mouths are. I don’t enjoy this, but I damn sure know what I’m doing and talking about and I’ll be prepared for most conceivable eventualities, knowing EVERYTHING is likely to change in ways previously unfathomable. People need to get that through their heads now, because if they don’t, their likely wake-up call will be far more brutal within several months, let alone by the end of the year and onward. Weeks ago I recommended a book on LinkedIn on the 1918 influenza pandemic, a pandemic of truly epic proportions (Pulitzer winning Gina Kolata’s “Flu: The Story Of The Great Influenza Pandemic”). I suggested this book may give people a good idea of what things might very well look like. There have been many similarities so far. It wasn’t bad in 1918 until the second round hit out of nowhere after the summer. That’s when millions of deaths started occurring, not during the first round. And because thorough records were not kept throughout the world, we only know a basic minimum number of deaths due to this pandemic while the ceiling is unknown and can only be guessed at. That said, it’s generally accepted that the 1918 pandemic killed between 25 and 40 million people with some estimates exceeding 100,000,000 Million people. Does that mean this will occur with today’s new, different virus? No, not necessarily. But word has come out that infection survivors in South Korea and possibly elsewhere are starting to become re-infected again, so far just in the hundreds. As with nearly everything the American public has been told, often by those who can’t even begin to comprehend basic realities, let alone attempting to come across as national health experts when they’re merely failed businesspeople, showmen, county treasurers and others who have no business influencing the people they “govern” let alone attempting to govern anything at all, so much of the information we’ve received has sadly been wildly inconsistent and at worst, dead wrong! We’ve been assured those who survive an infection should develop antibodies enabling them to fight off future infections and become essentially immune. I never believed it then — because this plague is the Holy Grail of universal pandemics — and we have apparent proof now that those assertions will turn out to be wrong, as have virtually all of the others we’ve received and continue to receive.

Draconian measures could keep the global casualty rate relatively low. Or could have, it seems, as some countries seem unwilling to commit to such for any significant duration (most obviously the U.S.), with the likely avoidable result being an untold number of fatalities. It simply boggles the mind.

The global casualty rate appears to be around .06953% (or simply 0.07% since the number increases daily) as I edit this on April 22, 2020. The U.S. rate, meanwhile, appears to be at .055% (up from 0.049% when I started this about two days ago). The total death ratio and overall number of U.S. fatalities don’t seem impressive to many people & that’s actually understandable, but consider two basic facts: 1) Roughly Four Million people in a country of 330 Million (USA) have “officially” been tested with the current administration stating there is no need for further testing. Since it’s a known fact the virus was in this country by mid-January if not sooner (with reports coming out today that the first fatalities appear now to have occurred here actually at THAT time and not 3–4 weeks later as has been believed) and no substantial testing took place for many weeks, has yet to take place and probably won’t take place, most experts have known that the U.S. numbers are actually much higher and much worse. How much, we’ll never know because our “leader” doesn’t want to know — or doesn’t want us to know. 2) Second, consider how rapidly COVID-19 spreads. All the information we’ve been fed assuring us of this or that has proven to be wrong — it can’t spread asymptotically, masks won’t help, it can’t be spread human to human, you can’t get infected again, etc. I called bullshit on those each time, but regardless, we do know that each day thousands of Americans are recorded as joining the lists of those infected. If roughly 4 Million people have officially been tested and about 840,000 have been *officially* infected at the time I write this (while knowing it is much higher), that equates to over 0.20% of those tested being found to be infected (up from the 0.1954% of a couple of days ago) of whom now .055% die. Do the math. 0.012% of our population has been *officially* tested, as reported by JHU. What will the numbers look like at 10%? 20%? 50%? I’ll tell you. At the current reported ratios, when 10% of the population, or roughly 33,000,000 people, could be tested, some 6,600,000 would be infected and of those, there will be over 363,000 deaths. At 20% tested, 13,200,000 Americans will be infected and over 725,000 will die. At 50%? Over 32 Million American citizens will be infected and we would expect to see over 1,760,000 deaths. Getting the picture? That is WITH our country actively taking these temporary self-isolation measures. Once certain largely Republican leaders get their way, what do you think the percentages will look like then? And for those who have not caught on, that’s the GOOD news. A good scenario. Because when the second round hit in 1918, the death toll was higher by thousands of percentages than the first round. Does that mean the same will happen now? No, not necessarily, but the whole point of contingency planning is preparing and planning for the WORST while hoping for the best, so since it appears South Korea may be experiencing some type of potential second round now, it’s very plausible there will be a global second round. Will it be better or worse? No way of knowing because this one is new and unique but knowing that protective measures are going to be relaxed, I’d say it’s a safe bet that it’s likely things will be MUCH worse the next time around. And oh, do we know it’s going to stop at two rounds? Why are we assuming that? Ideally there won’t be a second round, surely no third, but we can’t be sure. Why couldn’t there be a fourth, a variant that treatments developed by then won’t treat? Do you see where I’m going and where our leaders are afraid to go? They talk about opening up the economy to avoid a massive depression. Economists state we’re already IN a depression and even if that isn’t true, letting people out to resume their former lives (which is beyond naïve) will absolutely result in a workforce reduction that will devastate any economy salvaged by reintroducing a workforce to begin with! And our short sighted leaders either don’t see this or they don’t care, although it seems if they’re willing to kill their people to essentially pad their bank accounts, it won’t do much good when a third of the workforce is sick or dead and entire industries have disappeared, as I predicted on LinkedIn weeks ago…

Get your heads out of the sand people. We have gotten spoiled, pampered, lazy, entitled, SOFT and weak as a people. It’s both pathetic and tragic, as well as ironic for a country accustomed to thumping its chest, boasting to the world about what bad asses we are, living for the most violent movies and games in world history, with more handgun deaths/murders than most all first world countries combined, yet when the country sees the bodies of two dead U.S. servicemen being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu — an ugly sight, surely, but war is hell and life can be ugly — we can’t take it, so we cut and run back to the safety of our televisions and console games where the killing is pretend and we don’t have to be exposed to uncomfortable realities. When did this country get SOFT? Ironically, this is actually not new. Not only did our leaders know this as far back as World War Two (and before), but many others in the world did too, as evidenced in the writings of Ho & Giap, etc. Bin Laden even knew it. Why do you think the media was banned from showing flag draped coffins returning from Iraq? We can’t STOMACH shit many people in the rest of the world have to deal with daily! There. Does that sting? Does that tick you off? I don’t care. Prove me wrong. Most of you can’t or won’t. How many people here have to worry about stepping on land mines on their village outskirts while walking to do some laundry and getting your limbs blown off? Yeah, no one. But it’s common in many countries, for those who remember Princess Di’s passion, and to be candid, many in the world have the major Cold War adversaries to thank for this — the former Soviet Union and … the USA. Quit being pansies and whining about not being able to go clubbing or drag racing or to the beach. Quit “protesting” self-isolation, screaming about your “freedoms” like spoiled nine-year olds throwing tantrums. Talk about entitled, spoiled jackasses! The article referenced above is by a mother claiming she now “knows what her grandparents knew” regarding suffering in World War Two — because she’s locked in her house with her college age daughter who is crying because she’s … stuck in her house. For a week. DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WOULD FREAKING KILL FOR THAT PRIVILEGE? Not just around the world, but here in our own country, the forgotten homeless. Yes, them. My parents, aunts, uncles, family, friends underwent REAL hardships during that war, including making the ultimate sacrifice on foreign beaches. And while we beat our chests and boast to the world that we saved the world (and Europe especially) in that war (as well as the previous one), those who know any history at all about that time know that America suffered virtually nothing compared to most other notable countries and that while the U.S. suffered a tragic number of casualties (over 400,000 killed), it certainly wasn’t the U.S. that bore the brunt. The UK lost 450,000, Poland, 6,000,000. Yugoslavia over 1.5 Million, Czechoslovakia over 350,000, China up to 10,000,000, France about 600,000, Italy some half million, Germany over 7,000,000, Japan about 3,000,000, and so many more, but it was the Soviet Union that lost close to 27 MILLION people killed — military and civilian combined! Think about that. We don’t know the first darn thing about hardship and suffering. Of course there are those in this country who do, far too many, but on the whole, when compared to the rest of the world, we’ve had it relatively easy. Most other peoples are simply tougher because they’ve spent centuries, their entire existences, being continually invaded and fighting for their lives while the U.S. has not had to face that nightmare over the past 200 years. We don’t know what it’s like to have to defend our country, our homes and our lives. When the going gets tough, we cut and run and bury our heads in the sand. Hey, the truth hurts. If you don’t like it, don’t kill the messenger. Do what a real leader drilled into my head daily for years — AFFECT CHANGE. It is up to us. No one is going to help us but ourselves, and historically in America, each other as well. And do so while it’s still possible despite many of our so-called “leaders.” We need to ideally unify and face cold, hard facts and problems, not continue splintering as a country and continue in our escapist patterns. I often worry the country is “too far gone” — too permanently splintered to ever recover. But what little optimist in me that still exists believes that now is time to grow up, America. It is time to get rid of lying, irresponsible “leaders” who would rather pass the blame-buck than accept responsibility while they let their people die, and to come together as Americans as before, no matter if it’s a bumpy wedding at times. We’re supposed to be neighbors and according to some, the world’s “moral compass” — not enemies. So, if not now, when? Do it!

Scott C. Holstad

April 22, 2020